双语|大国博弈之中的澳大利亚Australia and Pacific neighbours

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双语|大国博弈之中的澳大利亚Australia and Pacific neighbours
前言
让我们把选举的时间早晚之争以及自由党和工党之争放在一边,澳大利亚在世界上的位置是由中长期安全政策和经济政策决定的。就在上个月,美国驻澳大利亚大使Harry Harris上将被任命为美国驻韩国大使。这反映了澳大利亚在美国战略考虑中的地位。多年来,澳大利亚一直没有试图公开影响或者反对过美国,甚至在美国对中国的政策中,不惜牺牲本国利益来支持美国。这是澳大利亚多年来的外交传统,而且短期内不会发生改变。我们只能希望中国能够理解澳大利亚的处境,并且将美国的安全政策和澳大利亚的经济政策区分开来,因为澳大利亚在经济政策上一直寻求和中国建立更好的关系。中国不会因为美国的安全政策而在经济上惩罚澳大利亚,而更有可能加强和澳大利亚的联系,支持其宣称的自由贸易原则和世界贸易组织的框架。
短期政策
短期决定总是很难经受时间的考验,就像特朗普的推特一样。特朗普的思想泡沫和平民主义行政令总是很难持续,而且总是会受到挑战,因此澳大利亚没法从这些行政命令中获得任何有指导意义的信息,来帮助澳大利亚持续地获得美国的支持。澳大利亚总理谭宝吃了很多苦头才认识到这一点。在2009年自由党重新选举领导人时,谭宝输给了Tony Abbott,没有成为反对党和自由党领袖,等了好几年才重新回到自由党领袖的位置。在我看来,谭宝不会轻易放弃,也不会被短期利益所迷惑,因为他因此吃过苦头。比起投机的政治家,他更像是一个有战略意识的商人;比起意识形态,他更在乎经济现实和理性考量。不幸的是,这导致谭宝经常被一些日常的政治问题所困扰;尤其是当政府薄弱的沟通能力(而非现实情况)让人民感到不信任时。我希望总理能及时改变这种情况,这对他自身有好处。
长期政策
比如,澳大利亚近二十年来在所罗门群岛关系上投入了很多,但很少有澳大利亚人知道。最近,澳大利亚谭宝联盟政府承诺要在澳大利亚和所罗门群岛之间提供高速海底电信电缆。鉴于另一个国家建设通信项目NBN在澳大利亚的成功,我祝他们好运,并且能够理解政府目前为何没有花费很多精力宣传所罗门群岛倡议。澳大利亚将投资建设一个电缆体系,将澳大利亚和所罗门群岛首都Honiara与巴布亚新几内亚首都Moresby港连接起来,所罗门群岛和巴布亚新几内亚也将共同出资。该项目预计将于2019年末完工,但也有可能延期。这个联合项目将成为所罗门群岛的一个优先项目,依靠卫星科技联网。由于地理条件的限制,卫星科技将永远是未来的一个重要组成部分。

保证太平洋地区的稳定、安全和繁荣是澳大利亚最重要的目标之一。增加和所罗门群岛的联系将改善治理和安全同时促进经济增长。

不幸的是,联系的加强也增加了风险。在网络合作项目中,澳大利亚和所罗门群岛通过加强网络安全框架和打击网络犯罪来管理这些风险。有人认为中国和俄国造成了最近的网络安全危机,因此澳大利亚政府应该更加明确如何保护与所罗门群岛新建立的网络框架,这对大多数澳大利亚人的利益也至关重要。电子商务的运作必须要有值得信任的沟通体系,不管是美国还是中国,否则真正的自由贸易不可能实现。

支持意味着耐心
政府强烈的支持反映了澳大利亚在太平洋地区的参与越来越多,以及促进该地区经济合作和一体化的承诺。澳大利亚一直以来致力于太平洋地区的和平和稳定,比如澳大利亚领导了所罗门群岛地区援助团(RAMSI)14年。RAMSI主要是一支警察部队、执法和经济援助团。澳大利亚将继续和其他国家合作,保持RAMSI获得的成果,支持所罗门群岛的长期稳定和增长,比如通过双边安全条约。澳大利亚能够保证这些项目将彻底改变所罗门群岛,并将双边关系带入一个新阶段。

对中国和对美国关系
有人希望澳大利亚在处理和美国、中国及其他国家关系时,能够吸取一些与所罗门群岛关系的经验,将安全利益和经济利益结合起来,让外交政策更加容易理解。这种方法还可能会成功地通过和平手段和经济合作解除大国之间的紧张关系,而不是陷入军事力量竞争。

『原文』

Australia and Pacific neighbours, security and economics, the PM’s confused choices?

Leaving the issues around an early or late election, Liberal or Labor aside, Australia’s place in the world is defined by security and economic policy for the medium and long term.The designated USA Ambassador to Australia, Admiral Harry Harris has been reassigned to South Korea. This says volumes about the priority Australia has in terms of USA strategic thinking. For its part Australia has not tried to influence or contradict the USA publicly for years; to the extent where it supports the USA’s agenda with China for example at Australia’s own cost. That is the paradigm Australian foreign policy has been operating in for years and it does not look like it will change anytime soon. One can only hope China can show some sympathy for Australia’s situation and separate USA security policy from Australian economic policy that sees the potential of better economic relationships with China. China, rather than try to punish Australia economically for the USA security policy, would likely do better in public perception in Australia to act on China’s stated support for free trade and the World Trade Organisation framework by engaging on that basis with Australia.

Short term!

Short term decisions seldom stand the test of time as Trump’s tweets show. Thought bubbles and populist executive decisions seldom last nor go unchallenged, as inevitably they confuse more than they are instructive in gaining insight that generates consistent support.

The Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has had to learn this the hard way. He was disposed of, by Tony Abbott, as Opposition and Liberal Leader and had to wait several years to reclaim his leadership of the Liberal Party.  PM Malcolm Turnbull is unlikely to give up easily after this; or be seduced by short term thinking, as he suffered from it substantially. He is more of a strategic businessman than tactical politician, driven by economic reality and rationality rather than ideology; from my perspective. That unfortunately leaves the PM blindsided by many of the daily political issues; especially when the communications skills instead of the facts, of his Government, leave the people unconvinced. I hope the PM can change that situation in time, for his own sake.

Long term?

For example, Australia has for nearly two decades invested heavily in its relationship with Solomon Islands, but few Australians are aware of it. Looking at recent developments the Australian Turnbull Coalition Government has affirmed the commitment to deliver a high-speed undersea telecommunication cable between Australia and the Solomon Islands. Given the success of the NBN in Australia, another nation building communications project, I wish them luck and can understand why the Government is not putting a lot of effort in advertising the Solomon Islands initiative at the moment.

Australia will deliver and majority fund the project as part of a cable system that will connect both Honiara and Port Moresby to Australia, with a financial co-contribution from both Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea.  It is scheduled for completion by the end of 2019 but do not be surprised if it takes longer.

The joint project will be a first for Solomon Islands, which is reliant on satellite technology to access the internet. Given the geological conditions satellite technology will always be part of the future.

Ensuring stability, security and prosperity in the Pacific is one of the highest priorities. Boosting connectivity in Solomon Islands will improve governance and security as well as drive economic growth.

Unfortunately, increased connectivity also exposes countries to risk. Through the Cyber Cooperation Program, Australia is working with Solomon Islands to manage these risks by strengthening its cyber security architecture and combating cybercrime. Given China and Russia have been accused to have caused recent cyber crisis the Australian Government should be more explicit in how the new connectivity is protected, that would no doubt be of great interest to most Australians too. Case in point, e-commerce needs to be able to trust the communication system from the USA to China, otherwise real free trade will not be possible.

Support means patience!

Australia’s strong support is a reflection of its stepped-up engagement in the Pacific and commitment to promoting economic cooperation and integration in the region.

It follows a long-standing commitment to peace and stability in the region, with Australia having led the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI), by enlarge a police force, law enforcement and economic assistance mission, over its 14 years of existence. Australia will continue to work together to sustain the gains made under RAMSI and support long-term stability and growth in Solomon Islands, such as through the bilateral security treaty.

Australia can ensure these projects are transformational for Solomon Islands and foster a new phase in the strong bilateral relationship.

Rule the world?

One would hope Australia could take some of the lessons learnt from its dealings with Solomon Islands to its relationship with the USA, China and others, creating a foreign policy that combines security and economics, making it more comprehensive and comprehendible. This approach may even be successful in defusing super power tensions through peaceful technical and economic cooperation rather than competition based on might is right.

Do you now better understand the issues Australia grapples with in its quest to deal with the USA and China?

A.    Yes?

B.    No?

Please comment!

作者AuthorRoger Hausmann – Federal Parliamentary Journalist澳洲联邦记者本文翻译Translator:周吉吉Julie本文编辑Editor:周吉吉Julie、千千Coco