双语|澳大利亚第一季度国民经济发展数据解读National Accounts Anyone?

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双语|澳大利亚第一季度国民经济发展数据解读National Accounts Anyone?
前言
2018年3月的国民账户(National Accounts)表明,谭宝-McCormack联盟政府的经济促进计划很有效果,澳大利亚将继续实施目前的计划。在上一次选举中,自由党-国家党联盟宣布将促进就业和经济增长,他们的确实现了这个目标。

自从2013年联盟政府上台之后,就业增长了一百多万。去年成为历史上就业增长最强势的一年,平均每天增长1000多个岗位。

第一季度经济数据
根据澳大利亚统计局的数据,第一季度经济增长了1.0%,比去年同期增长了3.1%。这是两年来最高的年增长率,高于长期以来的平均值。澳大利亚又重新回到了全球领导者的位置,在主要经济发达国家中也处于领先位置,再一次超过了OECD国家(经济合作与发展组织,主要成员皆为高收入发达国家)的平均增长率和所有的G7国家(包括美国、加拿大、英国、法国、德国、意大利和日本),虽然没法和中国相比。

这个结果符合谭宝-McCormack政府的预算报告中的预测,也符合2018年5月预算报告中的经济增长计划。

这些数据表明,增长是全面的,第一季度里所有部门都为经济增长作出了贡献,包括家庭消费、新的公共最终需求和净出口。

在联盟政府的推动下,澳大利亚新增长了一百多万个就业岗位,就业的增长对经济有巨大的影响。

家庭消费增长

第一季度家庭消费增长了0.3%,比去年同期增长了2.9%。过去一年里,17个消费类别中有15个都为经济增长做出了贡献。年增长的一半以上都是由家庭消费贡献的。正当经济持续增长、家庭消费持续促进经济发展之时,谭宝-McCormack政府通过个人所得税计划(Personal Income Tax Plan)为部分群体提供减税,通过更低、更公平、更简单的税收刺激家庭消费和经济增长。

个人所得税计划是为了给中低收入群体提供初始帮助。在澳大利亚经济转型期间,这部分群体为经济发展提供了很大的支持。

随着经济增长和劳动力市场发展,澳大利亚就业人员的工资报酬提高了。上一个季度中,劳动报酬增长了1.2%,和去年同期相比增长了5.1%。这是6年以来劳动报酬年增长率最高的一次。

上个季度超过40%的增长以及三分之一的年增长是由劳动报酬增长和平均工资增长引起的。这表明,不仅就业人员的数量增长了,而且他们的就业收入也增长了。

公司收入增长 
就业的增长主要是由非矿业企业驱动的。这些企业在持续投资和扩大,它们享受了有史以来最好的商业条件。财政部估计,上一个季度内,新的非矿业企业投资增长了1.8%,比去年增长了10%。非矿业投资已经连续增长了8个季度,是自上一次矿业投资热潮开始以来最长的连续增长。

新的机械和设备投资已经实现连续四个季度增长,比去年增长了9.3%。这是自2012年矿业投资热潮以来最高的年增长率,是长期平均增长率的两倍。皮卡车和其他商用车辆的发展推动了这一增长。

上上个季度中拖后腿的净出口在上个季度恢复了表现,为增长贡献了0.3个百分点。

上个季度出口额增长了2.4%,比去年同期增长了4.6%,矿业和服务出口的表现尤其突出。

上个季度的进口额增长了0.5%,令人欣喜的是,很多来自于资本进口,这一趋势和非矿业企业投资的增长一致。

这些结果说明了联盟政府为什么致力于为本地出口商争取更多的国际市场。

收入方面,名义GDP也在预算中扮演着重要角色。上个季度,名义GDP增长了2.2%,比去年增长了3.9%。

我们再来看看上个季度澳大利亚公司的总体表现。公司利润增长了5%,非矿业和矿业企业都贡献了很多增长。然而,矿业利润的增长不能被视为理所当然,政府对商品价格依然持谨慎态度。

公司收入和劳动收入一致增长
正如前文提到的,劳动报酬增长幅度很大,上季度增长了1.2%,年增长5.1%。从年增长率来看,公司利润和工资的增长幅度大致相似。
总体家庭可支配收入在上一季度增长了0.7%,比去年增长了2.8%,同时家庭存款比例下跌至2.1%。

 

 『原文』 National Accounts Anyone?

The March 2018 National Accounts show that the Turnbull McCormack Government’s plan for a stronger economy is working, and Australians are asked to stick to that plan.At the last election the Liberal National Coalition said it would deliver jobs and growth; that is what has been delivered.

More than 1 million jobs have been created since the Coalition came to office in 2013, and last calendar year was the strongest jobs growth on record, with more than 1,000 jobs created on average every day.

ABS numbers!

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the economy grew by 1.0% in the March quarter to be 3.1% higher than a year ago. This is the strongest annual growth rate in around two years and is above the long-run average.

Australia has climbed back to the top of the global leader board, leading the major advanced economies of the world, bettering the average growth of the OECD and all G7 nations once again. China is not part of this comparison.

The results validate the Turnbull McCormack Government’s budget forecasts and confirm the strengthening economic outlook presented in the Budget in May 2018.

The figures show growth was broad-based with all components contributing to growth in the quarter, including household consumption, new public final demand and net exports.

Over 1 million jobs have been created under the Coalition Government and having more Australians in work is having a great impact on the economy.

Households!

Household consumption grew by 0.3% in the quarter and is 2.9% higher than a year ago. This has been driven by increases in 15 of the 17 consumption categories over the past year. Over half of our annual growth has been driven by household consumption.

As the economy strengthens and households continue to do their part for the economy, the Turnbull McCormack Government remains committed to back them in by providing targeted tax relief through Personal Income Tax Plan for lower, fairer and simpler taxes.

This plan is rightfully designed to provide initial support for lower and middle-income earners who have done so much to support the economy as it transitions out of the mining investment boom.

As the economy has grown and the labour market has strengthened, what we are paid, or compensation of employees, has improved. Compensation of employees recorded solid growth of 1.2% in the quarter and is up 5.1% over the year. This is the strongest annual result seen in almost six years.

Over 40% of the increase in the quarter and around a third of the annual increase is being driven by employees earning more or an increase in average wages. The results show that not only are more Australians in jobs, they are earning more in those jobs.

Australians have worked for this increase in income and the Turnbull McCormack Government is committed to ensuring they keep more of it?

The growth in jobs has mainly been driven by non-mining businesses, who are investing and expanding, taking advantage of some of the best reported business conditions on record.

Treasury estimates that new non-mining business investment grew by 1.8% in the quarter and 10.0% through the year. Non-mining investment has grown for eight consecutive quarters, the longest continuous growth since before the start of the mining investment boom.

New machinery and equipment investment grew for the fourth consecutive quarter to be 9.3% higher than a year ago. This is the highest annual growth rate since the peak of the mining investment boom in 2012 and twice the long run average and is being driven by utes and other commercial vehicles.

Following the drag from last quarter, net exports bounced back in the quarter contributing 0.3 %points to growth.

Exports were up 2.4% in the quarter to be up 4.6% over the year, with strength seen in mining and services exports.

Imports were up 0.5% in the quarter, encouragingly a lot of this came through capital imports, in line with the momentum in non-mining business investment.

The results show why the Coalition Government remains focused on gaining greater access to international markets for local exporters.

Turning to the income side, nominal GDP, which plays an important role in the Budget also remains on track, growing 2.2% in the quarter to be 3.9% higher than a year ago.

Looking at the overall performance of companies during the quarter, corporate profits were up 5.0%, with strong contributions from both non-mining and, particularly, mining profits. However, this strength in mining profits cannot be taken for granted and the Government continues to maintain a prudent assumption for commodity prices.

Stronger profits allow Australian businesses to invest more and employ more Australians.

As noted previously, compensation of employees has risen strongly, up 1.2% in the quarter and up 5.1% through the year. In annual terms, corporate profits and wages and salaries are growing at broadly similar rates.

Overall household gross disposable income grew by 0.7% in the quarter to be 2.8% higher over the year, while the household saving ratio ticked down to 2.1%.

What is your take on the overall result?

A. Good?

B. Bad?

C. Needs other details?

Please leave a comment!

作者Author:Roger Hausmann/Federal Parliamentary Journalist澳洲联邦记者本文翻译Translator:周吉吉Julie

本文编辑Editor:周吉吉Julie